Charles Leclerc has just delivered a stunning victory at Monza, etching his name once again into Ferrari folklore. The triumph not only electrified the Tifosi but also raised an important question: is Leclerc still in the 2024 Formula 1 World Championship title fight? Mathematically speaking, the answer is far from simple. Many fans and pundits have already deemed the title fight a battle between Lando Norris and Max Verstappen, but a deeper look into the numbers shows that Leclerc may still have a realistic chance.
As of the most recent race, here are the key points in the championship:
At first glance, the gap between Leclerc and Verstappen seems insurmountable, with Leclerc trailing Verstappen by 86 points. However, Leclerc is much closer to Norris, with just a 24-point deficit. This proximity to Norris gives Leclerc an opportunity to leapfrog into second place in the coming races. But can either of them challenge Verstappen?
With 8 races to go, along with 3 remaining Sprint races, the maximum possible points for any driver to still collect is 230 points. This includes the following for each race weekend:
Thus, there's still a significant number of points on the table, meaning both Leclerc and Norris are mathematically still in the hunt.
Let's imagine an ideal scenario for Charles Leclerc: he wins every remaining race, every Sprint, and takes every fastest lap from here until the end of the season, accumulating the full 230 points available. This would bring his total to:
217 (current points) + 230 = 447 points
If Verstappen finishes second in all of these races and takes no fastest laps, he would score:
Adding Verstappen's projected second-place finishes to his current total:
303 (current points) + 165 = 468 points
In this scenario, Leclerc's total of 447 points would fall 21 points short of Verstappen's 468. Even if Leclerc were to dominate the rest of the season, he would need Verstappen to encounter at least one or two significant setbacks, such as DNFs or poor finishes, to close the gap completely.
If Lando Norris were to do the same and take all 230 points from here on out, he would reach:
241 (current points) + 230 = 471 points
Norris would, in this ideal case, surpass Verstappen by just 3 points, as Verstappen's total of 468 points would fall short of Norris's 471. This means that if Norris wins everything and Verstappen finishes second in all races, Norris can win the championship without needing Verstappen to make any significant mistakes.
Given the current standings, it's clear that Lando Norris is the only driver who can still win the title purely based on his own performance. If Norris wins every remaining race and Sprint race, and Verstappen finishes second in all of them, Norris will claim the championship by 3 points.
However, for Leclerc, the story is different. Even if he were to win everything, Verstappen would still finish with 21 points more than him. This means Leclerc would need Verstappen to suffer one or more poor finishes—perhaps a DNF or mechanical issue—in order to have any realistic chance of closing the gap.
For both drivers, though, the reality is that Verstappen's consistency will be the deciding factor. As long as Verstappen finishes second in each race and Sprint, Norris can still edge him out, but Leclerc will be left trailing regardless.
While the numbers show that both Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris are still mathematically in the fight, only Norris can fully control his own fate. For Leclerc, a title challenge is still possible, but it's reliant on Verstappen making costly mistakes.
Ferrari's recent improvements and McLaren's blistering speed give both drivers the tools to push for victories, but consistency, reliability, and Red Bull's strategic acumen have kept Verstappen comfortably ahead. Ultimately, Leclerc and Norris both need more than just race wins—they need Verstappen to stumble.
With 230 points still available, the championship isn't over yet, but as things stand, the title fight is still very much in Verstappen's control.